Die now of hunger or later of thirst: Understanding climate change adaptation decisions in vulnerable contexts

Abstract

Research Summary: Research on organizational climate change adaptation has focused on high-income nations, neglecting vulnerable regions already facing severe climate impacts. This study addresses this gap by examining how decision-makers in vulnerable contexts respond to climate change, drawing on a unique panel dataset of over 3000 agricultural producers in Brazil. Using an abductive mixed-methods approach, we develop a framework that explains how, contrary to findings from high-income contexts, the experience of climate change and the resulting heightened perception of climate change risk are more likely to increase maladaptive rather than adaptive responses. These maladaptive responses create “climate traps”—vicious cycles driven by the interplay between decision-makers' perceptions and ecological feedback loops, which further exacerbate vulnerability. Our framework offers a foundation for understanding adaptation patterns in vulnerable contexts.

Managerial Summary: Climate change poses significant challenges for decision-makers, particularly in vulnerable regions where adaptation is critical for survival. This study examines how small agricultural producers in Brazil respond to climate change, revealing that, rather than adopting adaptive strategies, many implement maladaptive responses that exacerbate their future vulnerability. Using both quantitative and qualitative data, we find that the experience of climate change and a heightened risk perception drive short-term survival strategies, creating “climate traps” that reinforce ecological and economic distress. Emotions such as fear and hopelessness play a crucial role in fostering decisions that prioritize immediate relief over long-term resilience. This research highlights the need for interventions that account for the psychological barriers to adaptation in these contexts.