A multiplicity of tomorrows from ‘giving the world cancer’ to ‘colonizing space’: Imagining 299 climate intervention futures from a foresight exercise across 44 focus groups

Abstract

In the context of increasing global warming, alternative climate intervention strategies are gaining prominence in policy, scientific, media, and public discourse. This study provides novel insights into public perceptions of these interventions, and the foreseeable changes for the near future, through a global foresight exercise involving 44 focus groups across 22 countries, evenly divided between the Global North (e.g. Australia, Germany, United States) and the Global South (e.g., Brazil, India, South Africa). Engaging 323 participants, the study explored imagined futures where climate interventions—such as solar radiation modification and large-scale carbon removal—are widely implemented in 2030. The participants generated 299 distinct futures, each characterized by an imagined newspaper headline, key actor(s), events and specific outcomes. In this paper, these futures are analyzed across the dimensions of technology, societal impact, actor networks, and in terms of spatial and scalar considerations. The findings reveal an extraordinary diversity of futures, ranging from optimistic futures of technological innovation and disease eradication to pessimistic futures of ecological disruption, the spread of cancer, and social inequities. This study underscores the plurality of perspectives on climate intervention futures, reflecting the interplay of cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors. By illuminating the breadth of futures, these findings provide timely insights to inform the development of inclusive, culturally sensitive climate policies at a critical juncture in the global response to climate change.