Postnormal Prometheus: How to anticipate and navigate postnormal times

Abstract

Despite being labelled as a theory of change, so far, postnormal times theory has only offered a broad explanation of why and how change happens in postnormal times. It has merely stated that it is the joint action of complexity, chaos, and contradictions (the postnormal factors) what prompts postnormal change, but has not produced a more thorough explanation of its development. This has made postnormal times to be perceived as unavoidable or fated. This article uses the simile of Prometheus, the classic titan, to determine up to which point postnormal times are truly ineluctable. Accepting that the three postnormal factors need to act jointly to cause postnormal change but rises in complexity appear to act as a catalyser. So, to have an operative way to estimate these grows in complexity levels, the article proposes to break down complexity into concurrency and connectivity. Both parameters can be measured much more easily and provide a workable way to measure these rises in complexity. Ultimately, the goal is to develop an approach to better understand postnormal change and to anticipate it. Thus, by improving our capacity to comprehend and foresee postnormal change we will also enhance our capacity to navigate postnormal times.